We were dubbed, "Baseball city America" just 3 short years ago. The Cubs and the Sox combined for 186 wins, 97 from the Northsiders and 89 from the South. Both teams won their respective divisions, and although the Sox were a little bit of a surprise, the Cubs had World Series expectations. 1 shared playoff win between the two, early exits for each, and we were sent into a tailspin which would last years and cost many people their jobs.
Baseball seemed to be on a rise he in Chicago, with the Cubs having put together their most successful decade back-to-back in a long long time (not that hard of a task), and the Sox having very strong teams in the mid to late 90's, then winning a World Series title in 2005, with multiple playoff appearances in between. With increased media attention, fan expectations, and what seemed bottomless pits of money, this truly was baseball city America. Then came the 2009 season. With popular players departing, overspending on older talent, long term contracts which handcuffed teams, trading away promising younger players, and managers losing ball clubs; we had lost the title, and were sent into a tailspin which seemed to be inflexible in the near future.
As bleak as each team's outlook may seem, the ever optimistic fan that I am will detail how and why this will change in 2012.
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are littered with bad, lengthy contracts. They also have older players which are either past their primes or haven't ever been difference makers, or overrated. The Cubs were able to shed the contract of Kosuke Fukudome, Aramis Ramirez is leaving this offseason, Carlos Zambrano will not be on the team, and Carlos Pena will surely test free agency. The Cubs will also drop the contracts of Reed Johnson, John Grabow and they have an option for Ryan Dempster. Even if they can trade him, the Cubs will be on the hook for a good chunk of Zambrano's contract. The Cubs also fired their longtime General Manager Jim Hendry, and when they hire their new guy all signs will point to the Cubs firing their manager Mike Quade and hiring their new GM's guy, whoever that may be.
How will they get better in 2012? Well it's not going to be easy, and the first order of business will be hiring a new GM. It appears that the Cubs are looking hard at Theo Epstein as they just requested permission to speak with him. They may also take a long look at Andrew Friedman, if he considers jumping out of the AL East and the Rays job, and into the Chicago Cubs position. There are also Assistant GM's in their scopes. Either candidate will prove to be exceptional in the position, and as it looks like Cubs Chairman Tom Ricketts wants to rebuild the Cubs minor leagues either guy has shown that they can do that. Theo is showing the ability to run a successful minor league system while running high payroll teams as well which might give him a little bit of an upper hand in the Ricketts eyes, however I would personally choose Andrew.
Once the GM is in his role, the next order of business is replacing the manager. Don't get me wrong, Mike Quade is a swell guy, and I liked how he was accountable to mistakes, and now it's time for him to be accountable for not being a very good Major League manager. I know that everyone wants Ryne Sandberg as the next Cubs manager, and unlike in the past, I am for it. I think under a great GM, Ryno will be able to drive the 2012 roster (which could be younger), and build a lot of credibility as a professional manager. I would also like Terry Francona, Joe Girardi, or Bob Brenly on a short list.
Next is players. Let's face it, we are stuck with Alfonso Soriano and his $20 million. He has the worse contract in baseball, and it would take someone as smart as Jim Hendry to accept a trade for him. So the next best option to shed some salary would be through Ryan Dempster. The Cubs have a $14 mill and some change option for 2012, and although he is just the kind of guy you want in the clubhouse even Ryan himself would say he has not lived up to his deal. We could waive that option, and resign him for 2-3 years at $8-10 million a year, saving the Cubs some additional money. With the subtractions the Cubs are actually well below $100 million, somewhere in the neighborhood of $85 million. Say they wanted to get back to their 2011 payroll they would have anywhere from $40 to $50 million in cash to spend.
The biggest gorilla in the room? A first baseman. It's no secret, the Cubs will be the biggest franchise available for any of the high profile 1B out there. Although I think everyone will agree Albert Pujols and St Louis will find a way to figure things out, Prince Fielder stands to have a huge payday with possibly 2-3 teams courting his services. By the end of it all I think we will hear him say he is taking his services to the Chicago Cubs for around $18 million a season over 6 years.
With one of the most feared lefty bats in the lineup, the Cubs can now focus on rounding out a pitching staff that was low on talent in 2011. There will be 1 ace who should be available, but expect CC Sabathia to resign with the Yankees for a new pitchers contract record. I do expect the Cubs to add a couple of pitchers (2 or 3 including resigning Kerry Wood) costing them around $12-15 million.
This leaves a hole at 3B and about $10 million to fix that problem. Aramis will not be back, if he was he would have just picked up his option for $14 some million and as it is I am sure he will be looking for more than the $10 million we could use on the position. I would imagine they bring in someone like Wilson Betemit or Adrian Beltre, or bring in a new 2B and move Starlin Castro to 3B, Darwin Barney to SS, and plug either the new guy in at 2B or platoon that position with Jeff Baker and Blake DeWitt.
I do not see the Cubs standing pat with the guys they have now either. We will probably see a veteran or two moved for prospects, paving way for Tyler Colvin, Bryan LaHair, or even a Brett Jackson. We could easily see an opening day line-up as such:
1. Starlin Castro 3B
2. Darwin Barney SS
3. Prince Fielder 1B
4. Bryan LaHair RF
5. Marlon Byrd CF
6. Alfonso Soriano LF
7. Giovanni Soto C
8. Jeff Baker/Blake DeWitt 2B
We would assume that Tyler Colvin would get starts at all 3 outfield positions and if Tony Campana will continue to get starts in LF and CF. If Brett Jackson makes appearances it means Byrd is gone or the Cubs are long out of competition.
Again now, how can this team win? If the Cubs fix their 3B opening internally they will have around $10 million to upgrade other positions, as well as any trades they might be able to pull off. There is already rumors of Zambrano joining Ozzie Guillen in Florida (which could create a very strong rotation, and possibly the most insane team in the majors), which I would assume could open around $5 million more. This additional money allows the Cubs to add a couple of more players in at 2B (Orlando Cabrera anyone?) or any of the OF positions (Miguel Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Nate McLouth, or a Rick Ankiel?).
So if you add that extra pitcher or extra hitter we have a team capable of going out everyday and competing, and in a NL Central which will be a little weaker but anyone not named Houston Astros can compete for the Central title. It will not be easy, and I wouldn't lead anyone on to believe the Cubs will win in 2012, but just don't be surprised if the Cubs catch lightening in a bottle.
Chicago White Sox
Again, this team has front office turmoil. Ozzie Guillen fled the team after crying about a new contract all season. Kenny Williams has not been able to put together a team since the World Series team, and the team is now facing the idea of losing one of their best pitchers of all time, and possibly one of the faces of the franchise. The team turned a perennial 40 HR slugger into a .160 AVG and 11 HRs. This team signed Alex Rios, a classic underachiever, to a 7 yr contract and will be under team control until 2015. The Sox also has some questions at 3B, and will have major questions if Gordon Beckham has another sub par year.
First order of business, in my opinion, fire Kenny Williams. There are too many other options that could be available to stay with someone who has put together teams that "almost" compete. Most of his big moves fail, and they have relied on their veterans, or unexpected contributions to gain the success they have achieved. The Sox have a highly sought after Assistant GM in Rick Hahn, who if they promote could be an inexpensive replacement, and who has the ability to step in and run the team.
This team will now need to find a replacement manager. From the past it seems like Jerry Reinsdorf likes to hire past assistant managers, or bench coaches to fill the position. With some of the possibilities that are out there, I would imagine the Sox hire Terry Francona or go hard after a bench coach or minor league manager. I think someone with the demeanor of Francona would be best for this team after the high strung leadership of Guillen.
Next, really it is getting the most out of the guys that are on this roster. From all accounts it sounds like youngsters Dayan Viciedo and Brent Morel will get a lot of playing time, which also points to Carlos Quentin being traded. With the possibility of Mark Buehrle leaving, this is also the time for Chris Sale to earn a rotation spot.
Paul Konerko is a professionals professional, you can pencil him in for 30 HRs and around 100 RBIs. What this team will need is another guy that you can do this with, and I think Adam Dunn has a huge bounce back year. Expect 35-40 HRs from him in a season in which he promised to dedicate his offseason to getting better. I wouldn't expect a .280 AVG from the guy, but .225 with 35 HRs and 90+ RBIs should be within reach. If Beckham plays the game the way I believe he can, you are looking at a .280 AVG guy, with 20 HRs, then you add Alexei Ramirez to the mix for another .275 AVG and 20 HRs this team will not be short on power.
Now its on the young guys, offensively that is... Viciedo has been highly publicized and by all accounts should be able to produce at the major league level. Brent Morel should have a better season after getting a long look at Major League pitching, and the young pitchers only need to put quality starts up there as the Sox should have a very nice bullpen in 2012.
With the right manager, and proper moves prior to the season, and during, this team can compete in 2012. Again the AL Central, just like the NL Central will be highly contested with just about every team getting better. To win in this division you will need 90-95 wins, and this team should have enough offense and just enough pitching to deliver on this.
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